Global Economic News Weekly Update

Global Economic News Weekly Update

US LEI Signals Potential Economic Slowdown in April 2025

Released by The Conference Board on April 21, 2025, at 2:00 PM, the Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the United States registered a potential decrease of 0.5% month-over-month, indicating a probability of decelerating economic activity. This figure suggested a slightly increased likelihood of a downward trend compared to the previous forecast of a possible 0.3% contraction. As a composite gauge of ten leading macroeconomic indicators encompassing labor, production, real estate, credit, currency, and sentiment, shifts within these components likely contributed to the observed change, hinting at a higher chance of a future economic slowdown, though not guaranteeing it, with subsequent releases and component analysis expected to provide further clarity. The next update is expected on 19 May 2025, with a steady forecast of -0.3%.

Canada RMPI Release: April 2025

On April 22, 2025, at 12:30, Statistics Canada released its Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) month-over-month figures, which track the change in prices paid by manufacturers for raw materials, offering a potential insight into inflation. The release was anticipated to show a 0.3% increase for the measured month, down from a previous forecast of 0.5%. While the RMPI serves as a potential leading indicator for short-term production activity and price pressures, its movements did not guarantee future economic conditions. A rise in the RMPI might have suggested a potential for increased inflation and, at times, historically coincided with positive sentiment for the Canadian dollar (CAD), though such correlations were subject to numerous variables.  The reading for May 22, 2025, is expected to worsen to -1.1%, showing the degree of alarm.

United States Census Bureau Releases New Home Sales Figures

Released by the Census Bureau on April 23, 2025, at 14:00, the latest figures concerning New Home Sales in the United States drew market attention as a potential indicator of the nation's housing sector dynamics, specifically focusing on newly built single-family home sales as a gauge for overall housing market health and related consumer confidence. The forecast figure was noted at 0.685 million, a slight adjustment from the preceding forecast of 0.688 million, subtly signaling anticipated market activity. The next release is on 23 May, 2025, expecting a steady forecast of 0.683 million.

US Jobless Claims Fall Below Forecast in Latest Report

Initial jobless claims in the U.S. reached a potential 219,000 as of 12:30 PM on April 24, 2025, according to the Department of Labor's latest report. This figure is below the previous 221,000 forecast, providing an evolving snapshot of the nation's labor market by tracking new unemployment insurance applicants over the past week. While an upward trend in these claims could have exerted downward pressure on the US dollar under certain economic conditions, analysts frequently considered the four-week moving average for a more stable interpretation due to the inherent variability in weekly data. The next release, due on May 1, 2025, is forecasted to decline to 218 K.

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: April 2025 Preliminary Reading

The University of Michigan's latest release, dated April 25, 2025, at 2:00 PM, indicated a potential shift in how US consumers perceived the current and future economic landscape. Derived from a monthly telephone survey of at least 500 US households, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index gauges these perceptions through approximately 50 questions about major purchase inclinations and income assessments.