Global Economic News Weekly Update

Global Economic News Weekly Update

RBI Forecasts India's Current Account Shift

On March 31, 2025, the Reserve Bank of India released India's Current Account figures, accompanied by a forecast indicating a potential surplus of 1.0% of GDP. This projection marked a significant contrast to the previously anticipated 1.2% deficit, suggesting a possible improvement in India's external account position. While a stronger-than-expected surplus could potentially have been viewed favourably for the Indian Rupee (INR). The next release is expected on June 30, 2025, with a predicted forecast of -0.2%.

U.S. Manufacturing PMI: Exceeds Expectations

On April 1, 2025, the U.S. S&P Global Markit Manufacturing PMI data was released, following forecasts that anticipated a reading of 52.6. This expected figure was an increase from the previous 51.9 and, being above the 50-point expansion threshold, suggested potentially improving business conditions within the manufacturing sector. While historically, strong PMI readings sometimes correlated positively with the US dollar's value. The next release is on 1 May 2025, expecting a steady forecast of 51.0.

U.S. ADP Employment: Weak Forecast, Potential Dollar Impact

On April 2, 2025, the U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change report was released, preceded by a notably low forecast suggesting only 4,000 job additions. This figure starkly contrasted with the prior report's 124,000 gain, hinting at a potential significant deceleration in private sector hiring. While such a weak forecast raised possibilities of downward pressure on the US dollar. The next release is on 30 April 2025, expecting a positive trend of 246,000 jobs.

U.S. Services PMI: Growth Moderation Expected

On April 3, 2025, the U.S. S&P Global Markit Services PMI was released, following a forecast that anticipated a reading of 52.1. This projected figure was lower than the previous reading of 54.1, suggesting a potential moderation in the expansion rate of the US service sector. Although readings above 50 typically indicated sector growth and could potentially bolster the US dollar, the forecasted decrease hinted at a slower pace, with the actual market impact dependent upon the final released data and other prevailing economic factors.

U.S. Unemployment: Forecasted Increase

On April 4, 2025, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released a forecast projecting a potential rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2%, an increase from the previous 3.9% prediction. Market analysis preceding the release suggested that such an increase might negatively impact the dollar's value, given a commonly observed inverse relationship. However, the actual effect on dollar quotes was understood to be probabilistic, ultimately depending on the official data and other concurrent economic factors.