Global Economic News Weekly Update

Global Economic News Weekly Update

Chicago Fed National Activity Index: March 2025 Update

On March 24, 2025, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its updated Chicago Fed National Activity Index, a broad gauge of U.S. economic activity. The index, composed of 85 weighted variables across production, labor, consumption, and sales, indicated a forecast of 0.07, a shift from the previous -0.03. This positive reading suggested a potential increase in economic activity and possible inflationary pressure. However, it was emphasized that this was a probabilistic assessment, not a definitive prediction, as the index, while comprehensive, inherently carried a degree of uncertainty. The next report, which is to be released on April 24, 2025, predicts a small decline to 0.02.

U.S. Economic Outlook: New Home Sales Rise, Chicago Fed Index Analyzed

The United States' economic landscape remained probabilistic, as Census Bureau figures offered potential insights. On March 25, 2025, at 14:00, forecasts for New Home Sales indicated 0.688 million, surpassing the previous 0.657 million forecast. The New Home Sales indicator, reflecting newly constructed residences, served as a gauge of the US housing market, while the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, aggregating 85 monthly indicators, attempted to quantify overall economic activity and inflationary pressures. However, any perceived potential effect of Index growth on dollar quotes remained just that, a potential, as multiple global factors influenced the dollar's strength. The next release is expected on April 23, 2025.

0.5% Growth in U.S Durable Goods Orders: A Major Deviation from Projections

The Census Bureau released its latest data concerning durable goods orders m/m as of March 26, 2025, at 12:30, revealing a 0.5% growth in durable goods orders, a significant deviation from the previously forecasted 3.1% increase. This data, a measure of long-lasting goods orders and a potential indicator of economic activity, prompted possible reconsideration of prior economic outlooks. However, interpretations remained cautious due to the inherent uncertainties of economic forecasting and the fluctuating nature of market responses to such indicators. The reading for April 24, 2025, is expected to worsen to -2.4% billion, showing the degree of alarm.

US Economic Growth Holds Steady at 2.3% in First Quarter

On March 27, 2025, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released a report forecasting a 2.3% quarter-over-quarter growth in the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a figure that matched prior estimates and indicated a possible continuation of the current economic trend; this GDP, calculated as the total monetary value of US goods and services, adjusted for production costs, and comprised of consumer spending, government expenditure, investment, and net exports, was presented as a probabilistic indicator of economic health, subject to potential deviations due to market fluctuations, policy changes, and external shocks, with its impact on the US dollar remaining uncertain. The next release is on 30 April 2025, expecting a steady forecast of 2.4%.

U.S PCE Index Projection: 0.2% Increase

The United States Bureau of Economic Analysis released a projection, not a definitive outcome, on March 28, 2025, at 12:30, forecasting a possible 0.2% month-over-month increase in the Core PCE Price Index, a figure that represented a potential decrease from the previous 0.3%. This forecast, utilized by the Federal Reserve to gauge inflationary pressures, aimed to quantify price fluctuations excluding volatile sectors, but remained a probabilistic estimation subject to economic uncertainties, and was not a guaranteed result, with the understanding that various factors could disrupt potential correlations between index growth and dollar quotes.