Global Economic News Weekly Update

Global Economic News Weekly Update

US Retail Sales: A Potential Contraction

On March 17, 2025, the Census Bureau released figures indicating a potential contraction in US retail activity. The data, based on a sample of approximately 5,000 retail outlets, forecasted a month-over-month retail sales decline of -0.2%. This figure, contrasting with the previous forecast of +0.5%, suggested weakening consumer demand and carried implications for potential inflationary pressures. While stronger economic indicators traditionally favored the dollar, the complex nature of global markets meant the -0.2% figure served as a probabilistic signal, not a definitive predictor of future market movements, and remained subject to statistical uncertainties. The next update is expected on April 16, 2025, with a stable forecast of 0.3%.

U.S. Industrial Production Statistics 

On March 18, 2025, the Federal Reserve released the Industrial Production m/m data at 13:15, which showed a static industrial landscape. The forecast, mirroring the previous reading at 0.1%, suggested minimal monthly change in US factory, mining, and utility output. This metric, indexed against a 2002 baseline, attempted to measure industrial sector fluctuations but was considered an estimation, used probabilistically for inflation and GDP inferences. The Fed likely interpreted this as a potential economic indicator, though the predictive power of this single data point was acknowledged as limited, and market reactions, while possibly influenced by a higher reading, were understood to be complex and uncertain. The inclusion of publishing added complexity, and the 0.1% forecast ultimately served as a possible, but not guaranteed, snapshot of the industrial climate. The next release is on 16 April 2025, expecting a steady forecast of 0.1%.

U.S. Energy Market Fluctuations

The global energy market exhibited inherent uncertainty. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), on March 19, 2025, at 14:30, a potential shift in the Crude Oil Stocks Change Indicator emerged. The forecasted figure of 1.891 million barrels, a potential increase from the previously reported 1.448 million, suggested a possible weakening of US oil demand. While a correlation between increased crude oil stocks and reduced oil barrel prices existed, external factors such as geopolitical events and economic shifts could alter the anticipated price response. The forecasted increase presented a higher likelihood of a price decline, contingent upon various market forces, highlighting the probabilistic nature of oil price predictions. The following results release is to be set on March 26, 2025, with a projected drop of --3.047 million barrels.

The United States TIC Long-Term Transactions

The Treasury International Capital (TIC) Long-Term Transactions revealed a potentially significant, yet uncertain, development. Released on March 20, 2025, the forecast indicated a substantial increase to $128.1 billion, surpassing the previous $72.0 billion, suggesting a possible surge in foreign interest in US securities. While this increase could have theoretically strengthened the US dollar through heightened demand, the actual impact remained uncertain due to the complex interplay of other economic factors, including geopolitical events and inflation. The projected figure presented a potential trend, but the market's reaction, and its magnitude, remained unpredictable. The reading for April 16, 2025, is expected to worsen to $106.6 Billion, showing the degree of alarm.

RBI's Foreign Exchange Reserve Projection Released

On March 21, 2025, at 11:30, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) released a projected trajectory for India's foreign exchange reserves, forecasting $660.909 billion, an increase from the previous $640.746 billion. The RBI emphasized that this figure represented a potential scenario, not a guarantee, acknowledging that the reserves, utilized for monetary policy, debt servicing, and rupee interventions, could have influenced the currency's value, though the precise impact remained uncertain due to various economic factors and the RBI's strategic objectives, including inflation management.