Global Economic News Weekly Update

Global Economic News Weekly Update

US Manufacturing Sector Outlook

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its forecast for the February 2025 Manufacturing PMI, projecting a reading of 48.2. This represented a slight decrease from the previous forecast of 49.3. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a significant economic indicator that assesses the health of the US manufacturing sector. It's derived from a survey of over 400 manufacturing companies and encompasses key factors like employment, production levels, inventories, new orders, and supplier deliveries. Traditionally, a PMI reading above 50 suggests expansion within the manufacturing sector, which can potentially strengthen the US Dollar. However, the forecast of 48.2 indicated a possible contraction in manufacturing activity. The next update is expected on March 3, 2025, with a stable forecast of 48.9.

US JOLTS Job Openings Forecast

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, forecasting 7.603 million job openings. This marked a downward revision from the previous forecast of 8.098 million, suggesting a potential cooling in the US labor market. JOLTS provided crucial insights into the dynamics of the US labor market, tracking job vacancies, hires, and separations across various sectors. A decline in job openings indicated a shift in labor demand, potentially impacting economic growth. While a decrease in job openings did not necessarily signal a negative economic outlook, it warranted close observation. The impact on the US dollar remained uncertain, as various economic factors influence currency values. The reading for March 11, 2025, is expected to worsen to  7.279 M, showing the degree of alarm.

US ADP Employment Report Data

The ADP Research Institute released its Nonfarm Employment Change report, revealing an estimated 121,000 jobs added in February 2025. This figure, while slightly lower than the previous month's forecast of 122,000, provided a valuable snapshot of the current state of the U.S. labor market. The ADP report, derived from data collected from approximately 400,000 private businesses across 19 manufacturing sectors, offered insights into the dynamics of employment growth. A positive employment trend had historically been observed to potentially exert upward pressure on the U.S. dollar. However, the ADP report focused solely on the private sector, excluding government employment and agricultural jobs. Therefore, its implications for the overall economy were interpreted with a degree of caution. Historically, consistent employment growth within the private sector had exhibited a potential correlation with positive movements in the U.S. dollar. However, it was crucial to remember that this was not a guaranteed relationship, and other factors significantly influenced currency values. The next release is on 5 March 2025, expecting a slight positive trend of 124,000.

US Jobless Claims Data

Released by the United States Department of Labor on February 6, 2025, the latest Initial Jobless Claims figures became available, potentially offering a glimpse into the current state of the US labor market. The forecast for this release stood at 212,000, slightly surpassing the previous forecast of 207,000. Initial Jobless Claims represented the count of individuals submitting applications for unemployment insurance benefits for the first time within the past week. The February 13, 2025, release will be watched closely as estimates are for a possible decline to 218,000.

Unemployment Rate Dips Slightly in February 2025

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its latest unemployment figures earlier today. Market participants keenly awaited this data, which offered insights into the current state of the labor market. The upcoming release carried a forecast of 4.0%, a slight dip from the previous 4.1% reading. Understanding the unemployment rate was crucial, as it represented the proportion of individuals actively seeking employment but unable to find it, relative to the total civilian labor force.