Global Economics News Weekly Update

Global Economics News Weekly Update

India's CPI Forecast Revised Down to 4.63%

India's Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation released a CPI forecast, projecting a 4.63% year-on-year growth, revised down from a previous 5.48% prediction. The report emphasized the probabilistic nature of economic forecasts and the possibility of deviation from the projected figure. The CPI, a key economic indicator, was noted for its potential influence on monetary policy, such as interest rate adjustments and tax benefits, as well as possible implications for the Indian rupee's value, though this effect was deemed uncertain. The forecast was presented as one possible scenario rather than a definitive prediction of India's inflation. Forecast to rise by 6.19% for the next update on February 12, 2025.

US Producer Price Inflation Shows Signs of Slowing

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released data indicating a potential deceleration in producer price inflation, with the December Producer Price Index (PPI) projected to rise by 0.2%, a downward revision from the previously anticipated 0.4% increase. The PPI data offered insight into possible broader inflationary trends, with a continued slowdown potentially signaling weakening inflationary pressures and a more favorable environment for monetary policy adjustments, though this was not a certainty.  The next report, dated February 13, 2025, is expected to be steady at 0.2%.

US Crude Oil Stocks Forecast to Drop

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its latest Crude Oil Stocks Change indicator, revealing a forecasted decrease of -1.211 million barrels, compared to the previous forecast of -0.959 million barrels. This larger-than-anticipated draw suggested a potentially tightening supply situation that could exert upward pressure on prices, although this outcome was not guaranteed. The reading for January 23, 2025, is expected to worsen to  -2.446 M, showing the degree of alarm.

US Core Retail Sales Data: January 2025

The US Census Bureau released Core Retail Sales data for January 2025 on January 16th, providing insight into US consumer spending. The Core Retail Sales m/m, tracking the change in retail sales excluding automobiles, was forecast at 0.2%, matching the previous reading. The data, derived from a survey of 5,000 retail stores, was extrapolated to represent the entire US retail landscape. While the forecast suggested stability, the report acknowledged the inherent uncertainties in economic forecasting and the potential for market reactions if actual results deviated. The next update is expected on February 14, 2025, with a stable forecast of 0.5%.

Fed Projects Industrial Output Growth

The United States Federal Reserve System released industrial production figures, projecting a 0.2% month-over-month increase, indicating a potential expansion in output. This forecast, however, was probabilistic and subject to revision, as demonstrated by the previous forecast of a -0.1% contraction. The metric encompassed the production volume of factories, mining enterprises, electric networks, and publishing businesses, benchmarked against a 2002 base period.