Core Retail Sales: January 2025 Update

Core Retail Sales: January 2025 Update

The US Census Bureau released the latest Core Retail Sales data on January 16, 2025, at 13:30. This monthly indicator offers a glimpse into the state of consumer spending, a crucial component of the US economy.   

Core Retail Sales m/m tracks the change in retail sales from the previous month, excluding the often volatile automobile sector. This exclusion aims to provide a clearer picture of underlying consumer trends. The data is derived from a survey of 5,000 retail stores across the nation, encompassing various types and sizes. This sample is then extrapolated to represent the entire US retail landscape.   

The forecast for this release stands at 0.2%, mirroring the previous reading. While this suggests a degree of stability, it's essential to acknowledge the inherent uncertainties in economic forecasting. Actual results may deviate from expectations, potentially triggering market reactions.

Core Retail Sales is considered a valuable tool for assessing inflationary pressures. A rise in retail sales could indicate increased demand, potentially leading to upward pressure on prices. This, in turn, might influence the dollar's valuation in the foreign exchange market. However, the extent and direction of any such impact remain uncertain.   

It's crucial to approach economic indicators with a probabilistic mindset. Forecasts and past trends offer valuable insights, but they do not guarantee future outcomes. Various factors, both foreseen and unforeseen, can influence consumer behavior and market dynamics. Therefore, it's prudent to consider a range of possibilities and avoid placing undue reliance on any single indicator.