Global Economic News Weekly Update

Global Economic News Weekly Update

NAR Reports Modest Growth in Pending Home Sales

On December 30, 2024, the National Association of Realtors released the Pending Home Sales m/m for December, showing a modest 0.2% increase, significantly lower than the previous month's 2.0% growth. A stronger-than-expected result suggested resilient buyer activity and bolstered market confidence, potentially strengthening the dollar, while a weaker result signaled cooling demand and economic pressures. The next release is on December 12, 2024, and is expected to worsen to -3.0, showing the degree of alarm.

RBI Review Signals Potential Boost for INR

The Reserve Bank of India released its monthly Monetary and Credit Information Review on December 31, 2024,  detailing recent developments and financial initiatives. The review highlighted changes in monetary policy and credit regulation, with positive news potentially boosting the Indian Rupee (INR), though the actual impact depended on market expectations and the global financial context. The next report, which is to be released on 31 January 2025, predicts a similar positive trend.

Analysis of the January 2025 Swiss Manufacturing PMI

Released on new year day, the Swiss Manufacturing PMI (forecasted to rise to 51.0 from 48.5) indicated a potential shift towards expansion in the sector. This survey of over 300 managers gauged sales, new orders, and business expectations. A strong result could signal rising business confidence, investment and production, potentially strengthening the Swiss franc. Conversely, a weak PMI could suggest continued contraction, dampening economic optimism due to factors like trade and energy costs. The next report, expected on February 3, 2025.

US Initial Jobless Claims Remain Steady at 219,000

On January 2, 2025, the US Department of Labor released Initial Jobless Claims, with a consensus forecast of 219,000 new filings, unchanged from the prior period. This leading indicator of labor market health tracked first-time unemployment benefit claims. Analysts likely considered the four-week moving average to mitigate weekly volatility. The next report, which is to be released on January 9, 2025, predicts a small decline to 218,000.

US Manufacturing Health: Examining the Latest PMI Data

The ISM Manufacturing PMI, a probabilistic indicator of US manufacturing health, surveyed over 400 companies (both public and private) across various factors like employment, production, and new orders. A PMI above 50 signaled expansion, positively linked with the US dollar, while a reading below 50 indicated contraction. With a previous reading of 48.4 and a forecast suggesting a further decline to 48.1, interpretations required caution, acknowledging the inherent uncertainty of economic forecasts.