Global Economic News Weekly Update

Global Economic News Weekly Update

Orders for Durable Goods Fall in December

The US Census Bureau said durable goods orders, though expected to rise 0.2%, contracted by 1.1% in December 2024. This was in complete contrast to the prior month's gain of 0.8%. Such an unexpected contraction might insinuate that there is a headwind against the manufacturing sector. Against such a background, expectations for the next January 28, 2025, report hold that the decline will turn significantly worse to 5.0%, as demand remains challenged for durable goods.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharp Retreat in Advance of 2025

US consumer confidence slumped from its forecast of 115.9 and previous reading of 140.2 to 104.7 for December, according to Conference Board.  Next publication will moderately increase to 105.2 on January 28, 2025, assuming uncertainties are high

New Home Sales Improved but Below Consensus

New home sales for December were 0.664 million, compared with 0.627 million in November and below the consensus estimate of 0.692 million, according to the Census Bureau. The market is hanging in tough but not meeting expectations. The consensus for the next report on January 27, 2025, is 0.689 million units.

Initial Claims End the Year Stable, with No Change in Labor Conditions 

The Department of Labor reported 219,000 initial jobless claims for the week ended December 26, 2024, which exactly matched forecasts and barely moved from 220,000 the previous week. As a whole, the labor market is mostly steady; the next release will be January 2, 2025, estimating that claims stayed even at 219,000.

Crude Oil Inventories Decrease Less Than Anticipated in December

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a draw in crude oil inventories of 0.934 million barrels during the week that ended December 18, 2024, against the forecast of a decrease of 1.425 million. A slight drawdown reflects mixed signals in supply and demand dynamics. The next report is expected at the end of December, with forecasts showing further possible drawdowns.