Awaiting US Core PCE Price Index m/m Release

Awaiting  U.S. Core PCE Price Index m/m Release

The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release fresh data on the United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for July on August 30, 2024, at 12:30 GMT. In this light, the monthly index, computed excluding food and energy prices due to their volatility, is expected to inch lower by 0.1% as compared to a 0.2% increase seen in the previous month. Should the index come in at or above the forecast, it may indicate that inflationary pressures are still on,  fostering a U.S. dollar rally. Conversely, if the index growth came in below expectations, this may indicate that inflation is cooling down more than expected. This could spur speculation that the Federal Reserve may consider setting a more conservative pace to future increases to its interest rate. 

U.S. Core PCE Price Index y/y

At 12:30 GMT on August 30, 2024, will also be the release of the U.S. Core PCE Price Index y/y is a comparison of July 2024 price changes to July 2023. The forecasted increase is 2.5%, a slight decrease from the previous growth rate of 2.6%. This longer-term measure of inflation makes the core index an important indicator that helps guide monetary policy decisions of the Federal Reserve. If actual data matches forecasts, it would put inflation at a consolidation around a level not so far from the Fed's target and likely supportive of the current policy direction.

Conversely, the case could be one in which it overshot expectations, and this might serve as evidence that inflationary pressures are sustained. A reading lower than expected tells you inflation might be cooling down a bit faster and could reduce fears of further tightening.

India and Canada GDP Data Set to release today 

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation will release the Gross Domestic Product data for India's second quarter today. It forecasts 4.3%, which would be a drop from 7.8% in the previous period. This is a critical indicator of the health of the economy, and this report might therefore substantially influence market sentiment and the Indian rupee. It could indicate the continuation of economic expansion if GDP growth meets or is higher than expectations, and this could boost investors' confidence. A figure below this forecast might create worries that there is a slowdown- in key sectors such as trade and investment.

Statistics Canada is due to release Canada's Gross Domestic Product for July today at 12:30 GMT. Monthly GDP is forecasted to expand by 0.1% compared to the previous month's growth of 0.2%. If the growth rate meets or exceeds the forecast, this will be favorable for the Canadian Dollar, while a weaker outcome would demonstrate that economic momentum is likely slowing and begin to affect market sentiment.